Why Policy Volatility Is Forcing Vessels to Sail Half-Empty—and Businesses to Hesitate

How Trump’s 2025 Trade Signals Are Driving Up Sea Freight Costs

In just a few months, the new Trump administration has already stirred major waves in global trade—and shipping lines are feeling the impact hard.

From the Far East to Europe, Latin America, and even the Middle East, freight forwarders are facing a volatile pricing environment caused not by natural disasters or port closures, but by political signals. Sudden tariffs, threats of trade barriers, and then abrupt policy walk-backs have made many global traders hesitate. The result? A new kind of supply chain paralysis.

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Empty Space, Rising Costs

Here’s what’s happening at sea: vessels are departing without being fully loaded.

Why? Because uncertainty is bad for business. When importers aren’t sure if tariffs will spike next month—or be removed altogether—they delay decisions. As demand for space softens, carriers are forced to operate below capacity, which directly pushes freight costs upward.

To make up for underutilized vessels, shipping lines increase rates per container. It’s basic economics: fewer bookings, higher prices. And these inflated rates are now being passed on to businesses across regions—especially those in emerging markets like Lebanon, where cost sensitivity is critical.

A Chain Reaction of Fear

Many businesses still remember the volatility of the last Trump presidency. Now, the renewed unpredictability is reviving that same caution. A single tweet or speech hinting at new sanctions or trade restrictions is enough to freeze an entire week’s worth of shipping activity between partners.

This ripple effect is especially damaging for SMEs in the MENA region. These companies already operate on tight margins and lean inventories. Delayed shipping decisions lead to missed sales, supply shortages, and eroded trust across supply chains.

Déjà Vu in the Shipping World: Policy Uncertainty Echoes the COVID-19 Crisis

This growing hesitancy mirrors what the world experienced during the COVID-19 crisis. Back then, it wasn’t just the virus disrupting supply chains—it was the uncertainty. Businesses didn't know whether ports would close, if goods would be allowed across borders, or when manufacturing would resume. The result? Hesitation to ship, half-empty vessels, and a surge in freight costs. Today, the trigger isn’t a pandemic, but unstable policy signals—and yet the symptoms are strikingly similar. Once again, fear is slowing trade, vessels are sailing light, and freight prices are climbing.

Container shipping lines cancel hundreds of sailings to stem losses as Covid-19 pandemic hits global trade ~ Rayan Swift, 10 Apr 2020

What Can Lebanese and MENA Businesses Do?

In such an environment, being reactive is costly. Instead, businesses should focus on:

  • Diversifying sourcing options to reduce dependence on any one region.
  • Securing spot rates early to avoid sudden hikes.
  • Consolidating shipments with trusted freight partners to minimize empty container fees.
  • Staying informed on trade policy developments—not just locally, but globally.

Uncertainty may be the new normal, but resilience is still possible

 

We’ve prepared a full article that dives deeper into this issue, including how to build a shipping strategy under political volatility. To access it, subscribe to our newsletter.
And stay tuned for the new platform 3ICT is preparing—it’s designed to help businesses like yours navigate today’s supply chain chaos with confidence.